Manhoos Mehsud

The US is 90% sure Mehsud is dead.

Where did this 90% figure come from? Either you’re sure or you’re not. Or you have degrees – reasonably sure, somewhat sure... but how do you ascribe a probability to an event like this?

These are my theories:

1. The US called up their agents and ignoring the “Cant Say”s, some multiple of nine agents told them he was dead, and a ninth of these agents told them he was not.
2. They did a complex scenario stimulation showing the last location of Mehsud, the impact of the bomb, and the probabilities that Mehsud did not run from the drop zone at the last minute because he had sudden pangs to be with one of his wives.
3. Some cigar-chewing top general asked someone ‘Well what the hell does reasonably sure mean?’ And the lackey improvised ‘Err – 90% sure sir.’

By the way, the question bothering me is ki marte waqt, kya Mehsud ko dard Mehsus hua tha?